When does the next AI model drop?

A prediction of when each major AI lab will next ship a model, based on how often they’ve shipped in the past. Release dates come from models.dev; each lab’s cadence is fitted to a Weibull distribution to estimate the next one.

Each row is a lab, sorted by how soon its next release is predicted. The coloured cloud is the likelihood of the next model landing on a given date — fattest where it’s most probable. The ticks behind it are past releases. Hover a cloud for the odds the next model has dropped by that date; hover a tick to see which model it was. Releases and updates are both counted, so a cloud predicts the next activity, not strictly the next flagship.