The transformation of software development through AI presents an intriguing application of Jevons Paradox: as development becomes more efficient, it is likely that we won’t see a reduction in demand for developers, but rather an increase. What was a previously (economically) unfeasible project, now becomes viable, and so organizations can explore innovative solutions that were once too resource-intensive to pursue. “Cheaper software means people are going to want more of it.” ...

The rise of AI coding assistants like ChatGPT and GitHub Copilot has sparked intense debate in the programming community: Are we witnessing the beginning of the end for human developers? Throughout history, new technologies have often been perceived as threats to existing industries. However, rather than replacing workers entirely, these innovations have typically transformed how work is done - becoming valuable tools that augment human capabilities and often create entirely new types of jobs. ...

Werner Vogels published his annual predictions in late November 2023. I want to take one of them seriously — not as a cheerleader, but as a sceptic who agrees with the conclusion while finding the framing too comfortable. The third prediction: AI assistants will redefine developer productivity. He is right. That is the frustrating part. ...